Will UAE Gasoline Prices Rise in February?

Could Gasoline Prices Rise in the UAE by February? Geopolitical Tensions and Increasing Demand Impact

For residents of the United Arab Emirates, the evolution of gasoline prices from month to month is not merely a transportation cost but increasingly a key factor in living expenses. In recent months, fluctuations in global oil markets and regional geopolitical tensions have collectively created a dynamic that may lead to another price increase in fuels in February.

January Prices and Global Oil Prices Evolution

In January 2026, the prices per liter for the three main types of gasoline in the UAE, Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus, were 2.53, 2.42, and 2.34 dirhams, respectively. This was a slight decrease compared to the previous month, mainly due to the calm in global oil markets in December. However, by the second half of January, the trend reversed: the average price of Brent crude rose to $63.47 per barrel from December's $61.51. This increase clearly reflected uncertainties present in international markets.

The highest closing price was recorded in the first three weeks of January when Brent reached $66.52. The American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also held steadily above the $60 level. These numbers strongly suggest that changes can be expected in the UAE's pricing for February.

Growth in Domestic Demand

Internal factors play an equally important role as international oil prices. The rapid economic growth of the UAE, increasing population, and the continuous expansion of the car fleet all contribute to rising fuel consumption.

The country’s largest fuel distributor, Adnoc Distribution, announced a record-high volume of 11.7 billion liters in the first nine months of 2026. During this period, the company opened 85 new service stations, bringing the network size to 977 stations. This not only indicates infrastructure expansion but also a growing number of vehicles, suggesting a long-term increasing demand for gasoline and diesel.

Geopolitical Effects: Iran, Venezuela, and the U.S. Fleet

The January price increase was partly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The United States has again turned its attention to Iran and deployed naval units to the region. This measure immediately raised concerns in the market, as any conflict or blockade could seriously affect oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Additionally, uncertainty around the operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) also contributed to market nervousness. Investment funds significantly increased their long positions in crude oil, which in itself pushed prices upward. This indicates that the market has already priced in possible risks.

Despite the volatility, stabilizing forces are also present

While a price increase seems likely, market-stabilizing forces should not be disregarded. According to a Fitch Ratings report, the current global market oversupply may be able to cushion any potential supply shortfall from Iran or other sources. Venezuela, for instance, could offer some extra capacity, but its impact is limited. The report suggests that OPEC’s future strategy—whether it moves towards value or volume—will play a crucial role in market balance.

What Can Be Expected in February?

Typically, February fuel prices in the UAE are announced at the end of the month based on global and local factors. Given current trends, a slight increase in prices is a realistic scenario, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate further. However, if the global market manages to maintain balance and avoid actual physical shipment disruptions, the extent of the price rise may remain moderate.

Consumer Outlook and Adaptation Options

For those living in the UAE, changes in gasoline prices are not only felt at the pump. They affect transportation fees, food delivery costs, and ultimately inflationary pressure. Although fuel prices are still lower than in many other parts of the world, regular changes require conscious planning from households.

Interest in electric vehicles is also continuously growing, especially in urban areas where the charging infrastructure is developing rapidly. Fluctuations in fuel prices could encourage more residents to turn to alternative-powered vehicles or utilize public transportation options.

Summary

Fuel prices in the UAE are expected to slightly increase in February 2026, primarily due to global oil market uncertainty and rising domestic demand. Residents are advised to monitor announcements and make informed decisions regarding transportation, vehicle use, and budget planning. The unpredictability of oil markets remains a challenge, but conscious consumer behavior can mitigate the impact of costs in daily life.