UAE Fuel Prices May Decrease in April
UAE Fuel Prices: Is a Decrease Coming in April?
Residents of the United Arab Emirates are once again eagerly anticipating the announcement of fuel prices for April. As the end of the month approaches, the government is set to announce new tariffs, and based on previous market developments, many are hopeful for further reductions in diesel and petrol prices.
Global Trends: Brent and WTI at a Low
The global oil market's movement in March was fairly restrained. The price of Brent crude oil averaged around $70.93, compared to the February average of $75. The price of WTI hovered around $70 per barrel. This moderate price movement creates an opportunity for the UAE to also lower its fuel prices, especially since the country reviews retail prices monthly to align with global trends.
UAE Fuel Prices in March
In March, the following prices were in effect in the country:
Super 98: 2.73 AED/liter
Special 95: 2.61 AED/liter
E-Plus 91: 2.54 AED/liter
These represent a slight decrease compared to February's prices, and if global prices remain low, vehicle owners might see even more favorable rates in April.
Geopolitical Risks and Opec+ Decisions
However, it's not just economic factors that are driving market movements. Increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S. military actions in the Red Sea, and the Israeli-Gaza conflict are all impacting the oil market. Uncertainty could increase further if the American tariffs against Venezuela, which are set to take effect on April 2, constrain the global supply.
On the other hand, the expected production increase by Opec+ could counterbalance supply shortages. The organization's goal is to maintain balance, and if they succeed in controlling oversupply, prices may not drop further. Yet, the potential for overproduction continues to pressure the market.
Oil Market Volatility
Market participants are now under dual pressure: on one hand, the effects of sanctions and tariffs tightening supply (Venezuela, Iran, Russia), and on the other, fears of a global economic slowdown that trade wars and tariffs might exacerbate. This duality continuously causes uncertainty in pricing.
In the past two weeks, oil prices have shown moderate increases, but this is more of a correction than a long-term trend. The market's search for balance is ongoing, and expected events in the coming month (new tariffs, Opec+ decisions) could move prices in either direction.
What Prices Can We Expect in April?
If current trends continue, a further slight decrease in April might occur in the UAE. The March price of 2.73 AED/liter for Super 98 could drop to around 2.6 AED. The Special 95 and E-Plus 91 prices per liter could also drop by a few cents. Of course, this depends on final global developments, the Brent and WTI rates, as well as international market sentiment.
Summary
Lower global oil prices predict an April price decrease in the UAE.
Opec+ production increases could push prices downwards, but the upward impact of geopolitical tensions and sanctions is also significant.
The announcement of new tariffs by the UAE government is expected on the last day of March.
