Aviation Corridor Crisis: Capacity Shortage by 2035

Aviation Corridor Crisis: Capacity Shortage by 2035

Aviation serves as a crucial economic and social link between the United Arab Emirates and India, but a recent study warns that if the current capacity levels remain unchanged, nearly 27% of the annual passenger traffic could be unmet by 2035. This shortage would not only inconvenience passengers but also result in significant economic losses for both countries.

25 Million Passengers, But Not Enough Seats

A study by Tourism Economics, published on behalf of Etihad Airways, indicates that the annual traffic on the UAE–India aviation corridor may reach 25 million passengers by 2035. However, if the current bilateral agreement-defined capacities remain unchanged, more than 10.8 million people annually will be unable to find a seat on any flight on this route. This cumulatively over a ten-year period translates to over 54 million unmet passengers, equating to 27% of total demand.

The study makes it clear that this situation is not due to weak demand, but on the contrary: the demand is remarkably strong and increasing at an accelerating rate each year, which the available seat numbers cannot keep up with.

Abu Dhabi and Indian City Routes Already Packed

One of the most critical bottlenecks has emerged between Abu Dhabi and India. Under the current bilateral aviation agreement (ASA), Abu Dhabi airlines are limited to 50,000 seats per week towards 11 designated Indian cities. However, this quota is already fully utilized, and the flights operate at 85% or higher occupancy for most of the year.

Estimates suggest that if the regulations aren't changed, approximately 13.2 million passengers will not be able to travel between Abu Dhabi and India from 2026 to 2035 – again affecting roughly 27% of expected demand.

Economic Growth Brings New Travelers

India's economic growth has exceeded 7% in recent years, and the proportion of "flight-capable" households increased from 24% to 40% between 2010 and 2024. This clearly indicates that the demand for aviation services is not a short-term surge but a sustained trend. Furthermore, domestic and international travel involving India could increase by an average of 7.2% annually over the next decade.

In this growing environment, the UAE has become India's most significant international aviation partner: in 2025, an estimated 16.4 million passengers are expected to travel between the two countries, accounting for nearly 20% of all international travel involving India – significantly ahead of any other country.

Capacity Shortage Leads to Economic Losses

The study emphasizes that this capacity shortage affects far more than just airlines or passengers. In 2025 alone, the UAE–India aviation corridor supports 4 million inbound tourists, generates $7.7 billion in GDP, maintains nearly a million jobs, and provides approximately $1.2 billion in tax revenue.

Without increasing the flight numbers, this annual economic growth will continue at just a 3% rate until 2030. Conversely, if available seat numbers were increased by 50%, GDP growth could accelerate to 5.5% annually, while a 100% increase could see it reach 7%. Calculations suggest that this growth would result in an additional $7.2 billion in GDP, 170,000 new jobs, and nearly $1.2 billion in extra tax revenue annually from 2026 to 2030.

Consumer Benefits and Tourism Potential

Not only would macroeconomic figures benefit, but passengers would profit as well: more available routes and sharper airline competition would reduce long-term ticket prices by about 3%. This would translate to a saving of around $12 per passenger, resulting in a total of $91 million in "consumer surplus" for more than seven million travelers by 2035.

Secondary Cities: Untapped Opportunities

The report highlights that rapidly developing secondary cities in India – like Pune, Goa, Lucknow, Vadodara, or Mangalore – are entirely missing out on direct Abu Dhabi flights, as the current ASA only permits 11 airports. This necessitates forced transfers at Delhi or Mumbai airports, which not only results in time loss but also diminishes travel enthusiasm and diverts investments to other destinations.

If direct connections were allowed in these regions, the study suggests, for instance, Pune alone could receive a million tourists from Abu Dhabi between 2026 and 2030, while Goa could see an additional 800,000.

Urgent Action Required for Policymakers

The study's conclusion is clear: without swift progress in revising the bilateral aviation agreements, the UAE–India aviation connection will become increasingly constrained. This would represent a serious loss not only for passengers but also for the economic growth potential of both countries. Through appropriate decisions, however, the UAE–India aviation corridor can remain one of the most successful and beneficial routes in global aviation – provided that capacity expansion is not neglected.