AI Revolutionizes Weather Forecasting in the UAE

Artificial Intelligence in Weather Forecasting: A New Era in the UAE

More Accurate, Faster, and Cheaper Forecasting Globally with AI

Weather forecasting traditionally requires significant computational power, substantial infrastructural investment, and considerable expertise. Physical models based on supercomputers can provide relatively accurate forecasts of weather over the next hours, days, or even weeks, but only a few developed countries can afford to operate these. However, in the United Arab Emirates, we are on the brink of a new era: AI-based weather forecasts have the potential to revolutionize meteorology, especially for developing countries.

Current Situation: Dominance of Supercomputers

The UAE's National Meteorological Center currently relies on a supercomputer worth more than $10 million to create numerical forecasts. These devices are capable of processing enormous amounts of data for hours using various physical and mathematical models. The process, however, is costly, energy-intensive, and requires expertise—resources not available to every country.

The Advantage of AI: Speed, Efficiency, Accessibility

Artificial Intelligence—more precisely, machine learning—can create forecasting systems that are not only accurate but also significantly cheaper to operate. AI models learn from vast amounts of past weather data, enabling them to recognize patterns and forecast future events based on these patterns.

At a conference titled "AI in Weather Forecasting" held in Abu Dhabi, it was announced that pilot projects are already operational in countries like Norway and Malawi. Remarkably, in Malawi, despite the lack of traditional infrastructure, they were able to produce three-day forecasts using computers valued at less than $5,000. This indicates the breakthrough AI could bring to global meteorology.

Challenges: Data Deficiency, Complexity, and Climate Change

The effectiveness of AI models depends on the quality and quantity of available data. Many countries lack enough meteorological stations, and access to satellite data is limited, resulting in significant data gaps in global forecasts. Moreover, the atmosphere is not homogeneous: local storms or atmospheric disturbances can disrupt the accuracy of forecasts, especially in the case of sudden weather events.

Climate change presents new challenges: formerly rare events are becoming frequent, and new patterns are emerging to which existing physical models do not always respond well. AI can be advantageous in this area too, as it can adapt to changing conditions if provided with appropriate datasets and learning algorithms.

The Future: Hybrid Solutions and Global Cooperation

The goal is not necessarily for AI to completely replace physical models but for them to function together, complementing each other. AI can detect phenomena that physical models miss, as it is familiar with previous similar cases. Combining the two could result in the most accurate forecasts.

The UAE leadership is at the forefront not only technologically but diplomatically as well: their aim is to forge international collaborations with other countries, UN agencies, and various governmental entities through the World Meteorological Organization. The goal is for weather forecasts to be technologically advanced and accessible to everyone.

AI and Public Safety

Weather forecasts are not merely convenience services; they have a direct impact on human safety. During hurricanes, sandstorms, floods, or extreme heatwaves, accurate forecasting can save lives. Thanks to AI's quick reaction time and adaptability, forecasting systems can emerge that promptly alert the population, thus preventing disasters.

Technological Equality

Perhaps one of the most significant advantages of AI-based meteorology is that it can eliminate technological inequality. Previously, only the wealthiest countries had accurate forecasts, but now even those countries that cannot afford the maintenance of multi-million-dollar supercomputers can access them. A simpler machine equipped with an AI model can provide similar accuracy data, opening new dimensions for developing countries.

Conclusion

Artificial intelligence can fundamentally change the future of weather forecasting, particularly in places like the UAE, where technological innovation is of strategic importance. With AI, faster, more accurate, and cheaper forecasts may become available worldwide. Although challenges remain—data collection, climate change, unexpected events—the direction of development is clear: the future belongs to AI-based, globally cooperative, and hybrid meteorological systems. The goal is nothing less than for every country, regardless of economic status, to be able to protect its population against the whims of the weather.

(Source of the article: National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) release.)