UAE Fuel Prices Could Skyrocket Soon

Fuel Price Surge Possible in UAE Due to Israel-Iran Conflict

Residents in the United Arab Emirates might have to dig deeper into their pockets again if global oil prices continue to rise – and there is every chance for that to happen. The heightened tensions between Israel and Iran could push the price of crude oil up to $100 per barrel, directly affecting the monthly fuel prices in the UAE.

What happened?

On Friday morning, Israel launched an unexpected and large-scale attack on Iran, primarily targeting military and nuclear facilities. The global oil market responded immediately: the price of crude oil surged by 14% that day, with Brent closing at $74.23 per barrel, and WTI at $72.98. This sharp price increase occurred despite the currently abundant reserves available worldwide.

What does this mean for UAE residents?

In June, fuel prices in the UAE remained unchanged: a liter of Super 98 gasoline priced at 2.58 dirhams, Special 95 at 2.47 dirhams, and E-Plus 91 at 2.39 dirhams. However, if the oil price stays persistently high, fuel prices in the Emirates are almost certain to rise in July.

Two scenarios – what to expect?

Experts currently outline two possible directions:

De-escalation: If the tensions quickly subside, the oil price may return to around $70. In this case, market attention may once again focus on the demand-supply relationship and the pressure on Russian oil.

Escalation: If the conflict deepens further and energy networks are affected, the oil price could reach levels between $100-$120, even if temporarily.

Why does the market react this way?

The Middle East continues to play a key role in oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz – through which over 20 million barrels of oil pass daily – is a vulnerable point, and any disruption can immediately drive prices up. While global reserves are abundant (particularly in China), and production capacity exceeds demand by 5%, even a short-term blockade could shock the market.

Market calm is fragile

Several analysts agree that today’s oil market is more resilient than before: exports are increasingly diversified, inventories are stable, and production can be increased if necessary. Yet, the price rise is already tangible, and the geopolitical situation remains unpredictable. The situation could change within days and would immediately affect fuel prices.

Summary

Although fuel prices in the UAE have not changed yet, market forecasts suggest there is a realistic chance of a price increase in July. Due to geopolitical uncertainties and oil price volatility, it is worth keeping an eye on official announcements. The UAE government has followed a balanced pricing policy in recent times, but now faces a new challenge – which motorists may also feel in their wallets.

(Based on statements from oil market analysts.)