UAE Birth Rate: Challenges and Optimistic Future
Significant Drop in Birth Rate – Slight Improvement Expected in Coming Decades
The fertility rate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has shown a dramatic decline over the past 30 years. However, according to the 2024 UN World Fertility Report, some improvement is expected in the coming decades. The report highlights that while similar trends are observed globally, the UAE faces unique social and economic challenges that affect the birth rate.
By the numbers: steep decline in the past 30 years
In 1994, the fertility rate in the UAE was 3.76 live births per woman, but by 2024, this figure had dropped to 1.21. According to UN forecasts, a slight increase is expected, with a projection of 1.34 live births per woman by 2054. However, this change still falls far short of the 2.1 ratio needed to sustain the population.
This decline is not unique to the UAE but extends across the region. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the fertility rate was 5.16 in 1994, while in 2024, it was only 2.31. In Kuwait, the most significant decline was recorded, where the ratio fell from 3.27 to 1.51, the lowest among the GCC countries.
What's behind the decline? – The impact of lifestyle factors
According to doctors working in the UAE, lifestyle factors play a significant role in the decrease of the fertility rate. A stressful work environment, long working hours, a sedentary lifestyle, and unhealthy diets all contribute to couples finding it more challenging to have children.
Frost and Sullivan consultancy estimates that by 2032, 97% of couples in emerging markets – including most parts of the Middle East and Africa – will struggle to have children naturally.
Sophie Smith, CEO of Nabta Health, suggests that globally similar reasons are behind the fertility rate decline: lifestyle habits, chronic health conditions, pollution, and exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals. Moreover, increasing attention is being directed towards male fertility factors, contributing to infertility issues in 40-45% of cases.
Government Intervention: Focus on Family Support
The UAE government has taken proactive steps to improve the situation. It established the Ministry of Family Affairs and transformed the Ministry of Community Development into the Ministry of Community Empowerment. These measures aim to promote family establishment, strengthen family cohesion, and increase the fertility rate, especially among UAE citizens.
Abu Dhabi's Community Development Department (DCD) has launched six initiatives to support Emirati families. These measures assist young people in getting married, having children, and strengthening families.
During a virtual session of the Federal National Council held in January 2025, citizens highlighted that reducing work hours and extending maternity leave could significantly contribute to increasing the fertility rate. Many mothers indicated that long working days leave little time for family life and planning for more children.
Awareness and Prevention: New Trends in Fertility Health
Increasing awareness about fertility health is receiving greater attention in the UAE. People are planning families more consciously and increasingly use fertility preservation options like egg freezing. State initiatives, such as the UAE Quality of Life Strategy 2033, also contribute to positive changes. This program aims to make Dubai one of the world's most livable cities.
Additionally, fertility screenings are becoming more popular among both women and men in the UAE. Mandatory pre-marital genetic screenings and workplace health programs, such as fertility checks, also contribute to increasing awareness.
Global Outlook: Declining Fertility is a Worldwide Trend
According to the UN report, the global fertility rate in 2024 averaged 2.2, a significant decrease from about 5 in the 1960s. Estimates suggest that by 2050, this rate will reach the 2.1 level needed to sustain the population, and it is expected to fall to 1.8 by 2100.
More than 55% of countries have a fertility rate below 2.1. This includes some of the world's most populous countries, such as India, China, the United States, Brazil, and Russia. In some countries, such as China, South Korea, Singapore, and Ukraine, the rate has already dropped below 1.
Conclusion: Challenges and Opportunities for the Future
The decline in the UAE's birth rate results from complex social, economic, and environmental factors. Although mild growth is predicted in the coming decades, challenges remain. Government measures, lifestyle changes, and increasing awareness offer hope that the UAE will successfully handle demographic challenges. Improving quality of life, strengthening family support programs, and promoting healthy lifestyles will be crucial in the future.
