UAE Fuel Prices: July's Potential Rise

Could Fuel Prices Rise in the UAE in July? The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions and Global Oil Prices

Residents and car users in the United Arab Emirates eagerly await the end-of-month announcement: will gasoline prices rise or fall? The decision for July is particularly keenly anticipated due to significant fluctuations in the global oil market over recent weeks, driven by conflicts in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

World oil prices surged after war erupted between Israel and Iran, followed by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The price of Brent crude oil shot up from an average of $63.60 per barrel in June to nearly $80. This significant increase might directly affect next month's fuel prices in the UAE, where prices are updated monthly according to international market conditions.

Stable Prices in June – But For How Long?

In June, the UAE's fuel price committee kept retail prices unchanged: Super 98 remained at 2.58 dirhams per liter, Special 95 at 2.47 dirhams, and E-Plus 91 at 2.39 dirhams. These prices remained surprisingly stable, despite a dramatic rise in Brent oil prices by mid-June.

What Can Be Expected in July?

A decision on whether prices will increase in July hasn't yet been made, but signs suggest a hike is likely. The decision will be announced by the Fuel Price Committee next Monday.

However, not all factors support a price increase. Analysts point out that there's also a weakening demand in the global oil market due to economic uncertainties, despite plentiful supply, thanks to OPEC+'s rapid production escalation. Russia has also indicated it is open to further production increases at the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 6.

If Middle Eastern tensions ease, oil prices could easily drop below the $60 level again, potentially relieving pressure on local fuel prices.

Why Is This So Important for UAE Residents?

Fuel prices in the UAE have been deregulated since 2015, meaning they are determined monthly by global market prices. This system makes pricing more transparent but also highly sensitive to international crises. Since many families rely on daily vehicle use, and public transportation is not fully developed everywhere, any potential increase could lead to significant cost rises.

Summary

We can only speculate about the trajectory of fuel prices for July. Global conflicts are pushing prices up, but if the political situation stabilizes and OPEC+ increases supply, it could mitigate market strain—and thus impact UAE residents. The final decision will be revealed next Monday, but it is worth monitoring oil market movements in the meantime.

(The article is based on statements from oil industry experts.)