Gold Market at Its Peak?

Gold Market at Its Peak? Correction Could Follow

In recent days, the price of gold has reached historic highs, surpassing $3,200 per ounce for the first time. Analysts suggest the market may be in a classic "blow-off" phase, a final overheated surge that could lead to a significant correction. In the short term, a peak of $3,300 is possible, but a subsequent 10–20% pullback is not out of the question.

Geopolitics and market nerves drive up the price

The current price increase is not only driven by traditional investor flight mechanisms, but also by a deeper systemic uncertainty. Aggressive tariff measures introduced by the President of the United States have disrupted global trade relations. For example, a 145% tariff has been imposed on China, to which Beijing responded with its own 125% tariff on American products.

This retaliatory spiral has significantly amplified fears of another global recession, while inflationary pressures have also intensified. As a result, many have turned to gold again— the traditional "safe haven" that always attracts special attention during times of crisis.

Gold as a refuge—or a speculation target?

While this rally may seem stable at first glance, experts suggest it could easily be a classic bull trap. Rising prices attract latecomer investors who buy near the peak, so even the smallest negative news could lead to an avalanche of selling.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has risen more than 22%, leading to significant upward revisions in forecasts by major financial institutions. Both UBS and Commerzbank believe that gold could reach the $3,500 level within 12 months. This forecast is particularly noteworthy in light of the dollar's recent 1% weakening against major currencies, making gold even more attractive to international investors.

Dubai and the focus of international gold trading

Dubai has long been known as a hub of global gold trading. A local precious metals trader suggests that the current trend is not just the result of economic escape desire but could also herald a deeper change: gold may again play a central role in the global monetary system.

Observations indicate that not only investors but also central banks are accumulating more gold. This could be a strategic decision, suggesting that leading global financial players are preparing for a future where the dollar may no longer play a dominant role among international reserve currencies.

What comes next? Caution or new entry?

Uncertainty persists: while technical indicators suggest there is still room for further price increases, a correction could easily follow the recent rapid surge. Seasoned market players tend to wait and watch geopolitical events closely, particularly new developments between the United States and China.

Those entering the market now must contend with volatility. For those who have already taken positions, it may be worth considering profit-making opportunities, especially if gold prices do reach the $3,300 mark in the coming days.

Summary

The current rise in gold is not merely a technical correction but a response to global economic and political uncertainties. Trump's tariff war, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases herald a new era where gold may not only serve as a safe haven but increasingly as a strategic resource. The question remains: is this still the beginning of the rally, or are we nearing the peak?

(The article is based on analyses by UBS and Commerzbank.)